While U.S. Congress showed strong support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statements on Iran in July, the media has largely shied away from coverage of what potential American involvement in an Israeli-Iranian conflict could look like.
As a result, the public remains largely unaware of the potential consequences and the specific role the U.S. might play in such a scenario.
In 2002, the U.S. military conducted the “Millennium Challenge” simulations, costing approximately $250 million. These exercises revealed that the American military would likely face failure in an all-out war with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Since then, Iran has significantly advanced its missile technology, drones, air defense systems, and even naval capabilities, further complicating any potential conflict scenario.
Washington has repeatedly stated that it does not seek war with Iran, with President Joe Biden publicly making it clear to Israel that he will not order direct U.S. participation in any Israeli attack on Iranian territory.
While Israel is often touted as having the most powerful military in West Asia, with 169,500 active-duty personnel across its army, navy, and air force, along with 465,000 reservists, its forces are stretched thin. They are heavily deployed across the northern front with Lebanon, as well as in the West Bank and Gaza. Moreover, Israel’s military size is significantly outmatched by that of its adversaries in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iran’s standing army is reported to include approximately 610,000 active-duty members, with an additional 350,000 in reserve. Additionally, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a key component of Iran’s military structure, is estimated to have 150,000 to 190,000 members, although these figures remain unverified.
Beyond these forces, Iran’s potential manpower extends further. It includes a national police force and the Basij, a volunteer social and paramilitary group said to have millions of members, which provides significant mobilization capacity in times of conflict.
#Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) long-range and ballistic missiles in the Great Prophet (PBUH) military exercise. pic.twitter.com/6XNtmJcVmc
— IRNA News Agency (@IrnaEnglish) February 23, 2024
Iran’s military capabilities have advanced significantly, particularly in its missile program. Starting in 2015, Iran began conducting major tests on precision-guided, long-range ballistic missiles. Since then, it has developed increasingly sophisticated missile technology. As a result, Iran now possesses the largest and most advanced missile arsenal in the Middle East, a program that began in response to the challenges faced during the Iran-Iraq War.
In addition to its missile force, Iran has made significant strides in drone and cruise missile technology. Its advancements in drone technology, in particular, have garnered international attention, including from Russia during its conflict in Ukraine.
In an interview with MintPress News, Beirut-based journalist and columnist for The Cradle, Sharmine Narwani, asserted that Iran could defeat Israel in a direct conflict.
“Israel is 90 times smaller than Iran—a tiny geography with very vulnerable key infrastructure targets,” Narwani explained.
The argument can be made that with just a few hundred targeted missiles, Iran could destroy Israel’s six power plants, two oil fields, two refineries, one oil terminal, three gas fields, five desalination plants, and its remaining ports. The state of Israel would essentially be besieged and lose any self-sufficiencies overnight.”
Narwani also noted Israel’s military vulnerability. “All Israeli airbases and airstrips are identified and potential targets too. One key for Iran would be to stop the daily arrival of U.S. weapons by air, which is Tel Aviv’s only lifeline for its continuous bombing of Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria,” she added.
25th Karbala Division of IRGC forces training from Mazandaran province, located at North of Iran
7 years ago, 200 volunteer soldiers from this Division fought to protect the city of Aleppo in Syria against massive attacks of dozens of western-backed Wahhabi factions. pic.twitter.com/cOXVKnnKlS— Iran’s military magazine (@iranmilitary_en) May 31, 2024
If the United States were to become involved in direct attacks on Iranian soil as a result of Israeli aggression, threats have already been issued against U.S. bases across the region. As of mid-August, an estimated 40,000 U.S. soldiers were stationed throughout the Middle East, deployed at military bases in Jordan, Iraq, Syria, and the Arab Gulf states.
Iran’s missile capabilities, recently demonstrated during its retaliatory strikes on Israel in an operation known as “Operation True Promise 2,” have shown their precision in targeting some of the most heavily guarded military bases in the world. These missiles are capable of striking at much longer distances than the U.S. bases located near Tehran’s immediate vicinity.
Watch Iran’s missiles literally rain on Tel Aviv. pic.twitter.com/1oBOrq9pLd
— red. (@redstreamnet) October 1, 2024
Beyond Iran’s military capabilities, the Islamic Republic also has allies throughout the region, operating in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine. According to Sharmine Narwani, the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” may still have a significant role to play.
“The Iraqi resistance has shown that it can participate in a multi-front war against Israel and its U.S. partner, especially now that Lebanon is a full warfront,” Narwani said.
It has done so by successfully launching drones and missiles of higher sophistication and, with more frequency, hitting Israeli targets. Should the regional war escalate and direct U.S. military engagement in support of Israel occur, the Iraqi resistance will likely turn its focus to more accessible targets within Iraq’s neighboring borders.”
In Yemen, the Ansarallah-led government in Sana’a has demonstrated its capability over the past ten months to overcome the efforts of a U.S.-led multinational naval coalition aimed at breaking the blockade imposed on Israel in the Red Sea. In December 2023, the U.S. launched Operation Prosperity Guardian, designed to ensure the safe passage of ships to the Israeli-controlled Port of Eilat.
Despite these costly efforts, the U.S. and its allies have failed to break the blockade. As a result, the Port of Eilat was eventually forced to file for bankruptcy.
Yemen’s ability to reach Tel Aviv with both drones and missiles, along with its continued resistance, signals that Ansarallah could pose a legitimate threat to U.S. forces in the Arabian Peninsula. Moreover, if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, it would likely succeed, triggering a global oil crisis.
In Iraq, the Hashd al-Shaabi, or Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), are another key Iranian ally, with an estimated force of around 238,000 men. Hezbollah in Lebanon also commands over 100,000 active-duty fighters. Additionally, the presence of Palestinian, Syrian, Iraqi, Afghan, Pakistani, and other militia forces operating inside Syria adds yet another unpredictable factor to the regional landscape.
The capabilities of the various militia groups, political parties, and standing armies at Iran’s disposal across the region remain largely unknown. However, what is known is that many of these groups are battle-hardened from years of grueling ground battles with everyone from ISIS to the IDF and that they possess diverse arsenals of rockets, missiles, and drones.
Speaking to MintPress News, Sharmine Narwani explained, “Based on what we know about Iran’s advanced missile arsenal, Tehran can easily target all U.S. bases and naval assets in the Persian Gulf, as well as those in Iraq and Syria, as we witnessed in 2020.”
Narwani further highlighted that “the U.S. has never been able to beat Iran in simulated irregular warfare gaming exercises unless the Americans cheated or rigged these games. This is one reason the Pentagon consistently avoids direct military conflict with Iran—the U.S. risks losing billions in forward military assets.”
Narwani also pointed out that potential U.S. strikes on Iran could be costly. “If the targets are Iran’s key operational infrastructure, this would be a significant loss for Iran, but also a difficult task for the Americans due to Iran’s immense geographical size and varied terrain.” On the other hand, she noted, “The targeting of U.S. military bases, facilities, and naval ships is much easier for the Iranians, as these are mostly stationary or easily spotted targets, which could eradicate U.S. military presence in the region.”
Should the U.S. decide to engage in direct war with Iran, the threats to its forces throughout the region would be formidable. While such a war would undoubtedly be costly for all sides, it is clear that it would not be a simple endeavor. Some neoconservatives in the U.S. have framed a war on Tehran as similar to the 2003 Iraq War. However, Iran is a largely mountainous country, approximately three times the size of Iraq in both population and land mass, making a potential conflict there far more complex.
Source: This story was originally published by MPN.news, Robert Inlakesh
Photo by Pixabay: https://www.pexels.com/photo/soldier-wearing-brown-helmet-holding-assault-rifle-during-daytime-163480/
