Cover photo credit pexels.com by Sora Shimazaki
by Ethan DeWitt, New Hampshire Bulletin
October 31, 2024
With tight polling margins in the New Hampshire governor’s race and an increasingly competitive atmosphere in the presidential race, the outcome of the fight to control the New Hampshire House is harder than ever to predict.
Republicans ended the two-year legislative session with 197 seats to Democrats’ 191; 11 seats in the 400-member Legislature are vacant, and one is held by Rep. Maria Perez, who is not affiliated with a party after leaving the Democratic Party in October 2023.
Now, with a presidential election year likely to bring out more voters than participated in the 2022 midterms, every seat will be closely contested. Democrats are seeking to hold some of the seats they wrested from Republicans in 2022 and expand into more Republican territory, while Republicans are hoping to maintain their narrow advantage and find opportunities to unseat vulnerable Democrats.
An analysis of the margins of victory in 2022 reveals there are plenty of seats that were won by fewer than 5 percentage points – and plenty more than are needed for either party to take decisive control.
Here is a guide to some of the races worth watching on Tuesday, and the seats both parties will be trying to flip to take control of the chamber or expand the control they already have.
Easiest seats for Republicans to flip
District: Merrimack 1
Towns represented: Boscawen
Number of pickup seats for Republicans: One
Democratic incumbent Lorrie Carey is seeking to hold on to her seat, which she won in 2022 by 22 votes. Republican Ricky Devoid is challenging her again, seeking a rematch from that narrow 2022 loss.
District: Coos 7
Towns represented: Berlin, Carroll, Jefferson, Kilkenny, Whitefield
Number of pickup seats for Republicans: One
This seat is currently held by Democratic Rep. Eamon Kelley. Republican Lori Korzen is hoping to unseat Kelley, and history suggests it could be close: Kelley won his seat in 2022 by just two votes.
District: Hillsborough 45
Towns represented: Brookline, Greenville, Hollis, Mason
Number of pickup seats for Republicans: One
Democrat Rep. Karen Calabro held this seat after winning the 2022 election by just seven votes. Calabro is facing a Republican candidate with high name recognition: Jack Flanagan, the former majority leader for the New Hampshire House who ran unsuccessfully for the 2nd Congressional District in 2016.
District: Grafton 7
Towns represented: Campton
Number of pickup seats for Republicans: One
Democrat Rep. Tommy Hoyt won this seat by a thread in 2022, beating Mark Alliegro by 18 votes, or one percentage point. Hoyt isn’t running for reelection this time, and Alliegro isn’t attempting another campaign. Instead, two new candidates are vying for the open seat, making it a tossup that Republicans could flip on Tuesday.
District: Sullivan 8
Towns represented: Acworth, Claremont, Croydon, Goshen, Langdon, Lempster, Springfield, Sunapee, and Washington
Number of pickup seats for Republicans: One
While Rep. Hope Damon was the top vote getter in this district – which is split between one Democratic and one Republican seat – the Democrat won with just a 0.1 percent margin over the third-place Republican. Based on those results, if Republicans were to take back her seat, they would need to improve by only 23 votes.
District: Merrimack 11
Towns represented: Allenstown
Number of pickup seats for Republicans: One
Democratic Rep. Alisson Turcotte won this district by about one percentage point in 2022. She beat Matthew Pitaro, who is challenging her again as the Republican nominee in 2024.
Harder seats for Republicans to flip
There are a number of other Democratic-held districts that are within reach of Republican victory, especially if voters tilt toward Republicans overall. In Rockingham 6, which comprises the town of Brentwood, Democrat Eric Turer is seeking to keep the seat he just narrowly won in 2022 against Melissa Litchfield, by 28 votes. Litchfield isn’t running in that district again, but Republican Allen Cook is hoping to defeat Turer.
Republicans are vying to unseat Democratic Rep. Linda Tanner in Sullivan 5, comprising Springfield and Sunapee, with Republican George Grant; Tanner won her district by 1.2 percentage points in 2022.
The party is going after Democratic Rep. Benjamin Baroody in Hillsborough 39, a floterial district in Manchester, after Baroody bested his closest Republican opponent in 2022 by 0.9 percent. Republicans are also challenging Henry Noel of Coos 5, in Berlin, who won by about a percentage point in 2022.
In Grafton 1, the home of Bath, Lisbon, Littleton, Lyman, Monroe, and Sugar Hill, Republicans control two of the three seats, and Republican Calvin Beaulier came within 0.8 percentage points of beating Democratic Rep. Linda Massimilla. Both Beaulier and Massimilla are running again.
And Republicans have been pouring advertising money into Cheshire 10 – Richmond and Swanzey – where Republican Dan LeClair was 1.5 percentage points away from defeating Democrat Barrett Faulkner, who won one of the district’s two seats. LeClaire will try again this year, and Faulkner is defending his seat.
Easiest seats for Democrats to flip
District: Cheshire 11
Towns represented: Winchester
Number of pickup seats for Democrats: One
This district was last held by a Republican, Zachary Nutting, who is not seeking re-election. Now, the seat is a contest between Natalie Quevedo, a Democrat, and Denis Murphy II, a Republican. Quevedo ran against Nutting in 2022, losing by six points, but the open nature of the race has Democrats more confident of a flip this time.
District: Strafford 5
City represented: Rochester
Number of pickup seats for Democrats: One
This district is currently occupied by Republican Thomas Kaczynski Jr. But Democrat Patricia Turner narrowly lost to Kaczynski in 2022 – by 74 votes – and is seeking a comeback this election.
District: Strafford 6
City represented: Rochester
Number of pickup seats for Democrats: One
This single-seat district is an open seat that is currently represented by Republican Clifford Newton. Newton won his 2022 race by 3.7 percentage points, or 78 votes, and now two new Republican and Democratic candidates are vying to claim the seat.
District: Strafford 9
City represented: Rochester
Number of pickup seats for Democrats: One
This seat is held by Republican Brandon Phinney, who is running for re-election. Phinney beat his 2022 challenger Nevin Dexter by 15 votes – 0.8 percentage points – and now is being challenged by Democrat Amy Malone.
District: Rockingham 40
Towns represented: Hampton, Seabrook
Number of pickup seats for Democrats: One
This is a Republican seat, previously held by Rep. Jason Janvrin. Janvrin switched districts and lost his primary in another district in September. Rockingham 40 is now an open seat, and two first-time candidates, Democrat John Carty and Republican Linda McGrath, are hoping to flip it.
The district leans Republican, but Janvrin’s 4.3 percent win in 2022 means neither candidate can take anything for granted.
District: Sullivan 7
Towns represented: Charlestown, Cornish, Newport, Plainfield, Unity
Number of pickup seats for Democrats: One
Republican Rep. Margaret Drye won this seat in 2022 against Democrat Jason Bourne by 2.3 percentage points, or 165 votes. Drye is running for reelection and facing a new opponent this time: Democrat Jenny Ramsey.
District: Grafton 18
Towns represented: Alexandria, Bridgewater, Bristol, Canaan, Dorchester, Enfield, Grafton, Groton, Hebron, and Orange
Number of pickup seats for Democrats: One
Democrats could pick up a victory in this open seat after Rep. John Sellers opted not to run again. Sellers beat Democrat Carolyn Fluehr-Lobban by just four votes in 2022. This year, Fluehr-Lobban is running again against a different Republican: Donald McFarlane.
Harder seats for Democrats to flip
Democrats have an additional slate of seats they think could be competitive enough to take back this year.
In Merrimack 7 – the towns of New London and Newbury – the retirement of Rep. Dan Wolf, a moderate who has endorsed Kamala Harris and voted with Democrats on key votes, is giving Democrats hope they could gain his seat.
Rockingham 1, which includes the towns of Northwood and Nottingham, presents another opportunity, Democrats believe. The district’s three seats were all Republican in 2022, but when Rep. Benjamin Bartlett resigned in April 2023, a Democrat, Hal Rafter, won the special election to replace him. Democrats hope they can use that momentum to flip at least one more of the two remaining Republican-held seats.
The seven-seat district Hillsborough 2, representing the town of Bedford, has three Republican and two Democratic incumbents, and two seats up for grabs. Both of those open seats were once held by Republicans; one by Dan Hynes, who left the Republican Party and then resigned his seat last session, and the other by Laurie Sanborn, the wife of embattled former state Sen. Andy Sanborn, who is not running for reelection. Democrats think they could pick up at least another seat.
The three-seat district of Hillsborough 42, which includes Lyndeborough, Mont Vernon, and New Boston, is currently dominated by Republicans, and all three of those Republicans are running again. But the election in 2022 was razor thin: One Republican, Rep. Keith Ammon, beat the nearest Democrat by just eight votes, and all three Democrats were within 100 votes of winning the district.
And in Merrimack – the site of ongoing activism around PFAS contamination and the fallout of Saint-Gobain’s announcement that it will demolish its plant next year – the eight-seat House district has three Democratic incumbents, three Republican incumbents, and two open seats up for grabs. Both open seats were held by Republicans last year.
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